Chavez has won

Just announced.

Chavez 61%
Rosales 38%

Fireworks deafening at the moment, people cheering from the hills.

Update: This is based on a 78% count of the vote.

We just watched the report in Spanish on Globovision (CNN), then in English on BBC World, then in German on DW-TV. I find it interesting that the BBC correspondant said "Chavez would be wise to sit down with the opposition" to work with them. I don´t think that´s how it works here. Chavez has at least 6 more years now. His Socialist Revolution continues...

Quiet streets on election day

Election day: quiet streets

Wait, what's that thing where all the cars usually are??? Oh, a road?!?!

This street just near Plaza Venezuela is normally totally grid-locked. I read yesterday that the average speed of traffic in Caracas is just 11km/h - a comfortable jogging pace.

But with voter turnout expected to be very, very high in what could be a tight election, the streets of Caracas were uncharacteristically void of cars today.

Now safely back in my flat having enjoyed a fantastic lunch of arepas and preparing to settle down in front of the TV and wait for the result. In a few hours, we will know if Chavez gets the chance to complete his socialist revolution or Rosales has managed to successfully unite the opposition.

Guardia Nacional

The Guardia Nacional are overseeing all the voting centres

Guards looked down on the Chavez-supporting crowds at the voting station just below Mamera's barrios.

Mamera is one of the prettier barrios, with all the houses painted very colourfully and a community centre just outside the metro with modern basketball courts.

There was a big mural up on the hillside saying "Good Job Chavez". And I really think he has done a good job here.

A very different Caracas Metro

Two things that are very different today

After checking out our local voting station this morning, which seemed pretty safe, Andreas and I had decided we couldn't resist taking advantage of the one-day only free metro.

We embarked upon a journey to see what was going on around Caracas on election day, promising Mario that we'd be back by 2pm.

Long long queues

Average waiting time: about 4 hours

This was my local voting station. Apparently some people had been waiting since 2am for the polls to open. Most had been waiting since 5 or 6am to cast their vote. People were prepared, with seats, newspapers and umbrellas to shade them from the intermittant sunny / rainy weather. Ice cream sellers and other street vendors were taking advantage of the crowd.

One outburst occurred at the front of the queue when some Chavistas arrived on motorbikes, waving red flags and generally trying to cause a disturbance. The crowd, the vast majority of which were opposition voters, reacted strongly shouting "A Fuera! A Fuera!" (Get Out!) and throwing bottles.

The military just looked on, pretty indifferent to what was going on. I think they understood that the people would sort out this disturbance themselves.

Nobody was hurt and it only lasted a few minutes. I think most voting stations are like this, dominated by voters from one side or the other.

A sleepless night

Saturday nights are normally not much good for sleep. The people in the Barrios surrounding the area where I live have taken to blasting out ridiculously loud music over the neighbourhood until about 6am.

But this weekend was of course worse, with the loud music added to by honking horns and processions of Chavez supporters parading the streets chanting "Chavez is not going". And what sounded like gun fire, but I'm sure was just fireworks, going on all night. Well, I'm not sure.

So after not much sleep, it was time to witness what must surely be one of the most important elections in Latin America.

Venezuela Elections - The Day Before

There was an eerie silence in Caracas yesterday. As I waited for a bus to work, I noticed that the streets were uncannily empty. The few students at University found many of their lecturers hadn't even turned up. This slightly tense atmosphere was interrupted only by the ocassional firework in support of one candidate or the other.

Many people have left Caracas or were spending the day with their families, concerned about possible reactions to the election result.

The campaigning is over now. People are waiting. Tomorrow, between 5.30am and 4.00pm around 16 million people will have their say. Do they want Chavez to stay or to go?

Current polls vary widely, some indicating an almost 60/40 split in favour of either of the candidates, and some indicating only a few percentage points between them. The general feeling I get is that Chavez will stay in power, fuelled by the masses of people in the lower social classes who have benefitted from hand-outs and social programs.

But Rosales's supporters - over a million of whom were marching in Caracas last weekend - are optimistic. They believe now is the time for change, and they believe they will win or at least come very close.

Venezuela is using an electronic voting system. The system prints out a receipt of your vote, which you check and then deposit in a box for auditing. Around 53% of these boxes - selected at random - will be audited to ensure the electronic result and the paper ballots match up. If there is more than a slight discrepancy, all the paper votes will be counted.

Opposition supporters have a deep distrust for this system. Many people I have spoken to are planning to gather outside the polling booths to demand that the box with their vote is audited. They are going to "defend their vote".

Officially, both candidates have declared that they believe the system is fair, accurate and transparent. Chavez a few days ago appeared on television to say that he will accept whatever the result is. If he loses, he has promised to transition promptly to the winner, even in advance of the February date marking the start of the new 6-year term.

But will the people also accept and respect the result of the election?

Tomorrow we will see.

Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution. Good or bad?

I think this quote (from this BBC survey) sums up one of the strongest objections to Chavez's government:

"I am a single mother of 3 with a food shop in Caracas. The government has just opened a Mercal store close to me with subsidised prices at 50% of what I can sell. My business will soon be finished. I am one of millions of poorer Venezuelans that are facing lower income and unemployment. Does the government planto employ 25m people? Why don't they understand they can best help us by allowing our businesses to do well? Most of us do want work and do well and provide for our families."

Andreina, Caracas, Venezuela

Contrary to what I wrote a few days ago, extreme poverty has decreased over the last 3 years. I don't think you can argue against social programs that provide access to free healthcare and education.

People really love Chavez because he is helping them at this moment, he has established a rapor with the people, and his talk of a real revolution in South America is inspiring.

But while food hand-outs and subsidies gain him popularity, in reality these are hurting businesses and not sustainable. As soon as oil prices come down, surely these will stop and then where will that leave the people who rely on them?

Two main groups are being hurt by Chavez's politics:

1. Venezuelan Businesses
   
   I read a report in a Caracas business magazine that said Venezuela is the 15th most difficult country in the world to start a business. The other 14 mostly being countries currently experiencing war. Ridiculous amounts of beaurocracy, lack of financing and economic uncertainly all make this difficult.
   
   And once you are up and running, there are further obstacles such as obscure property and unemployment laws, as well as the lack of educated professionals due to emmigration.
   
   
2. The Middle Classes
   
   The poor are getting hand-outs. The very rich are benefiting from oil income. But those in the middle are suffering. High inflation, restrictions on property ownership and lack of jobs are just some of the escalating problems. 19,000 employees of state oil firm PDVSA were sacked in 2003 for opposing the government and cannot now get jobs due to government blacklists.
   

Yes, giving more people access to basic education could be a way to lead to a stronger economy in the long-term, but what's the point if you are segregating those who are in a position to generate economic growth? (and I mean real economic growth not just increased oil prices)

Rosales, describing himself as a Social Democrat, promises to govern for people of all social classes. But as far as I can see doesn't have a clear set of policies or the charisma or vision of Chavez.

So which side has amassed more supporters: Chavez's Bolivarian revolution, with all the idealism and populism it encompasses? Or the more moderate politics of Rosales that to me seem to make more sense for a strong sustainable economy that takes into account all people in Venezuela and treats the nation as a whole instead of dividing it?